Conoco exec:banks may wise up, slow shale boom when oil recovers

2016年02月24日 投资美国石油俱乐部



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  source:fuel fix    

 

Banks and other lenders central to the recent U.S. oil boom may not want to ride the shale machine again after the rush to pump out as much crude as possible led to the worst downturn in decades, a ConocoPhillips executive said Tuesday.

 

Shale drillers boosted U.S. crude production by roughly 1 million barrels a day for several years in a row in therun up to the 2014 oil-price collapse, but they outspend their cash flow by 30 percent and took out billions in debt to fund that growth.

 

If crude prices recover in 2018,shale producers probably won’t need $100 oil or high levels of debt to grow production, but they will still need lenders.

 

“But we do need a significant price to provide the cash flow and the banks are going to be more constrained in their willingness to add capital,” said Matt Fox, executive vice president of exploration and production at ConocoPhillips, during the second day of IHS CERAWeek on Tuesday.

 

“In that scenario you could be looking at quite a significant price being required tolet the U.S. have enough capital to growing at 1 million barrels a day,” Foxsaid.

 

One of the central questions at the conference is how quickly U.S. shale production – which is expected to decline by 800,000 barrels a day to rebalance the market over the next year –can recover once prices rise out of their 12-year slump. The longer it takes for shale production to ramp back up, the more sustainable a price rally could be.

 

Fox’s point is oil companies took billions in debt to fund the shale boom, but if banks are more wary of the second coming of the shale industry, it could slow their progress.

 

On Monday, top officials of OPEC and the International Energy Agency warned any price rally could be quashed because a big chunk of shale production could come back on if crude pricesreached $60 a barrel.

 

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