Spotlight Session: Great Transformation of the Chinese Economy and Opportunities for Entrepreneurs
There are growing doubts about whether China can maintain high economic growth in the coming decades. Pessimism on China’s economic prospects stems from doubts about its ability to transition to a more sustainable growth model. A key reason for these doubts is that China’s quantity-based demographic dividend – fueled by cheap labor supply – is rapidly disappearing. However, we think a new demographic dividend is emerging, based on quality rather than quantity of labor. With the world’s biggest pool of educated labor, China will be well positioned to compete in high-end manufacturing and modern services. The economy will benefit directly if: (1) industrial sectors adopt skill-intensive technologies to provide opportunities for college graduates; (2) the government promotes urbanization to attract college graduates to settle down in Tier two cities; and (3) companies invest in sectors that can meet consumption demand from the 400mn-strong middle class.
The government faces a tougher balancing act in 2016: cutting capacity and leverage while ensuring minimum growth of 6.5% to achieve a “well-off society” by 2020.
We forecast 2016 growth at 6.8% on looser fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy
Rising non-performing loans and unstable exchange rates will be top risks
China’s economy has huge growth potential in the long run on the quality-based demographic dividend
Huge potentials will provide entrepreneurs with tremendous opportunities in five to ten years
中国经济放缓，劳动力成本增加，越来越多的人对中国经济的前景产生怀疑。但我们认为，新的人口红利，从量到质的改变正在悄然形成。Se Yan 博士将为您解读这一新的机遇。
About the Speaker:
Dr. Se Yan completed his PhD in Economics at UCLA and joined the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University in 2008. He is a Research Professor in the Department of Applied Economics. Dr. Yan's research specialities are economic history, development economics, macroeconomics and Chinese economy. Dr. Yan's research has been widely recognized by international academia. His dissertation, "Real Wages and Wage Premia in China, 1860 to 1936" was awarded "the Best Dissertation Prize" at the 15th World Economic History Congress. His other papers have been published at "International Economic Review", "Explorations in Economic History" and so on. He has been recently invited to give talks at various universities, such as Harvard Business School, Wharton School of University of Pennsylvania, University of Colorado at Boulder, HKUST, and Chinese University of Hong Kong.
14:30 Registration and networking
15:00 Session begins
16:30 Session ends
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