央行降息大势已定?澳元贬值迫在眉睫???

2015年05月02日 墨尔本百科



Fairfax colleague Peter Martin moved the markets sharply on Thursday evening with the publication of his story that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate by 25 points on Tuesday.

Importantly, the tone of the article wasn't: "I think that the RBA will cut." It was: "The RBA will cut."

It reprised the style of a similar piece he wrote before the February meeting when the RBA surprised most commentators with a 25 point trimming, despite governor Glenn Stevens previously promising to give markets fair warning of a change from the bank's policy of sitting pat.

Monetary policy is far too important to be selectively leaked even before board meetings have taken place. Photo: Louie Douvis

The move would have surprised markets more if they hadn't been given the nod by Peter.

That was once. This being twice leads one to think the RBA is making a habit out of preparing the market with a selective drop of very sensitive information ahead of time.

The rules for such things are not set in concrete, but I think it would be a worry if "the drop" became the norm.

The dollar dropped sharply after Peter Martin's rates story was published on Thursday.

Massaging market expectations is a delicate business, as the CFO of any listed company will tell you.

But the conduct of monetary policy should be a little more transparent.

Besides, it makes the RBA board look like a rubber stamp if the outcome of Tuesday's meeting is leaked on the Thursday before it takes place.

I asked Peter on the record if the story was a drop.

He replied: "I can't say how I got the story. It is accurate."

Which, of course, is what I expected.


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