#新兴经济体#--大减速

2013年08月02日 美国留学问问



WHEN a champion sprinter falls short of his best speeds, it takes a while to determine whether he is temporarily on poor form or has permanently lost his edge. The same is true with emerging markets, the world economy’s 21st-century sprinters. After a decade of surging growth, in which they led a global boom and then helped pull the world economy forwards in the face of the financial crisis, the emerging giants have slowed sharply.

当一位短跑冠军无法达到他的最佳速度时,人们需要一段时间才能确定他只是暂时状态不佳,还是永远失去了他的优势。这同样适用于21世纪世界经济的短跑冠军——新兴市场。十年的飞速增长带来了全球性的经济繁荣,并在金融危机时,帮助推动世界经济向前发展,而在此之后,新兴巨头们的经济增长速度已大幅放缓。

China will be lucky if it manages to hit its official target of 7.5% growth in 2013, a far cry from the double-digit rates that the country had come to expect in the 2000s. Growth in India (around 5%), Brazil and Russia (around 2.5%) is barely half what it was at the height of the boom. Collectively, emerging markets may (just) match last year’s pace of 5%. That sounds fast compared with the sluggish rich world, but it is the slowest emerging-economy expansion in a decade, barring 2009 when the rich world slumped.

如果中国2013年成功实现了7.5%的官方经济增长目标,那么这也值得庆幸了,但这与该国21世纪前十年预期的两位数增长目标相去甚远。印度(约5%)、巴西和俄罗斯(约2.5%)的经济增长速度也只是它们经济最繁荣时期的一半。总的来说,新兴市场可能(仅仅)与去年5%的增长速度持平。与不景气的富裕国家相比,这个速度似乎并不慢,但这是十年来除2009年富裕国家经济大萧条时以外,新兴经济体扩张中的最慢速度。


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